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Cognitive

Anchoring Effect

The first number you see controls your judgment

Discovered by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1974. In an experiment, participants spun a rigged wheel (stopping at 10 or 65) and were then asked about the percentage of African nations in the UN. Result for 10 group: Average guess 25% Result for 65 group: Average guess 45% The random number acted as an "anchor" influencing their estimate. This is why sellers start with a high price. The first number becomes the reference point for all subsequent negotiations.